The latest pit stop on the road to Oscar glory, the SAG Awards, happen this Saturday. The awards, voted on by the 165,000 members of the SAG/AFTRA guilds, honor the best performances in television and film. The film categories, particularly best ensemble, are key indicators for what film will take Best Picture at the Oscars. Let's take a look at the film nominees, and who we expect to win.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Our prediction: LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Hugh Glass - "THE REVENANT" (20th Century Fox)
Reasoning: DiCaprio has been the clear frontrunner for most of the season, with big wins in the category at the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards. Don't expect anyone else to walk away with this award.
Also nominated:
BRYAN CRANSTON / Dalton Trumbo - "TRUMBO" (Bleecker Street)
JOHNNY DEPP / James "Whitey" Bulger - "BLACK MASS" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
MICHAEL FASSBENDER / Steve Jobs - "STEVE JOBS" (Universal Pictures)
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Einar Wegener/Lili Elbe - "THE DANISH GIRL" (Focus Features)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Our prediction: BRIE LARSON / Ma - "ROOM" (A24)
Reasoning: Like DiCaprio, Larson is looking like the frontrunner for the rest of the season. Larson also took home key wins at the Globes and Critics' Choice Awards. At this point, veteran Cate Blanchett looks like her best competition (she's won in some critics' circles), but expect Larson to still come out on top.
Also nominated:
CATE BLANCHETT / Carol Aird - "CAROL" (The Weinstein Company)
HELEN MIRREN / Maria Altmann - "WOMAN IN GOLD" (The Weinstein Company)
SAOIRSE RONAN / Eilis - "BROOKLYN" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
SARAH SILVERMAN / Laney Brooks - "I SMILE BACK" (Broad Green Pictures)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Our prediction: CHRISTIAN BALE / Michael Burry - "THE BIG SHORT" (Paramount Pictures)
Reasoning: The experts over at GoldDerby have Mark Rylance coming out on top, with Bale in second. But Rylance is better known in theater circles, and Bale has a Critics' Choice award for the role. However, Rylance is a good alternate here, as is Idris Elba. People may vote for him to make a statement about the lack of diversity shown in the Oscar nominations this year.
Also nominated:
IDRIS ELBA / Commandant - "BEASTS OF NO NATION" (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Abel Rudolph - "BRIDGE OF SPIES" (DreamWorks)
MICHAEL SHANNON / Rick Carver - "99 HOMES" (Broad Green Pictures)
JACOB TREMBLAY / Jack - "ROOM" (A24)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Our prediction: ALICIA VIKANDER / Gerda Wegener - "THE DANISH GIRL" (Focus Features)
Reasoning: Vikander has a had a hell of a year, with big roles in films like Ex Machina, The Danish Girl and The Man From U.N.C.L.E.. Everyone loves an "it" girl, and Vikander is certainly that. She also took home the Critics' Choice Award, and has key nominations at the BAFTAs, Oscars and the Golden Globes (although she lost out there to Kate Winslet). She has the definite momentum, but if anyone else is going to swoop in here, it will be Rooney Mara.
Also nominated:
ROONEY MARA / Therese Belivet - "CAROL" (The Weinstein Company)
RACHEL McADAMS / Sacha Pfeiffer - "SPOTLIGHT" (Open Road Films)
HELEN MIRREN / Hedda Hopper - "TRUMBO" (Bleecker Street)
KATE WINSLET / Joanna Hoffman - "STEVE JOBS" (Universal Pictures)
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Our prediction: SPOTLIGHT (Open Road Films)
Reasoning: Despite a big win at the PGA Awards for The Big Short, Spotlight just feels right here. This year has been so unpredictable, and a win for The Big Short would just make things too easy. Chalk it up to a big gut feeling and the fact that The Big Short is more of a comedy (which traditionally doesn't bode well for big awards like this), but Spotlight feels like the better bet. The Big Short is the film most likely to upset it, though.
Also nominated:
BEASTS OF NO NATION (Netflix)
THE BIG SHORT (Paramount Pictures)
STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON (Universal Pictures)
TRUMBO (Bleecker Street)
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Our prediction: "MAD MAX: FURY ROAD" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Reasoning: The buzz around Mad Max has died down in recent weeks as the big awards (PGA, Critics' Choice, etc) went to Spotlight, The Big Short and The Revenant. However, the technical achievements of the film are still being highly praised, and director George Miller could easily take the DGA Award for Best Director. It wasn't nominated for anything else at the SAGs, so expect it to take home at least this one award.
Also nominated:
"EVEREST" (Universal Pictures)
"FURIOUS 7" (Universal Pictures)
"JURASSIC WORLD" (Universal Pictures)
"MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - ROGUE NATION" (Paramount Pictures)
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